Spreads vs Totals vs Props: What's Actually Hitting in 2026

Not all picks are created equal. We've got over 600 settled picks in the database now, and the differences between pick types are pretty stark.

Here's the breakdown.

Spreads: The Reliable Workhorse

Spread picks make up the largest chunk of everything posted on PickSignal, and they're hitting at right around 49-50%. That might sound mediocre, but it's actually solid for a platform-wide average. The best cappers are hitting spreads at 55%+, which is profitable territory.

The interesting part: home underdogs getting 3-7 points are the most profitable specific spread range on our platform. It's a small sample, but it's consistent enough to pay attention to.

Totals: Quietly the Best Pick Type

If there's one surprise in the data, it's this: over/under picks are outperforming every other pick type. Not by a huge margin, but consistently. The win rate on totals is about 2-3 percentage points higher than spreads across the board.

In the NBA specifically, totals are really popping. Scoring is more predictable than game outcomes, and the cappers who focus here are doing well. If you're looking for an edge, this might be where to start.

Moneylines: High Risk, Uneven Reward

Moneyline picks are tricky because a 60% win rate doesn't mean you're profitable — it depends entirely on the odds you're taking. Heavy favorites hit often but pay nothing. Underdogs pay a lot but rarely hit.

The cappers doing well with moneylines tend to target small underdogs (+100 to +150 range). They're not reaching for massive long shots.

Props: Enter at Your Own Risk

Sorry, prop fans. The data isn't kind. Player props have the lowest overall win rate on our platform. Part of this is because the lines are razor-sharp — sportsbooks put a lot of modeling into props. Part of it is that people tend to take overs on their favorite players' stats, which creates inflated lines.

There are cappers who crush props, but they're specialists. They focus on one stat type in one league and they grind. If that's not your style, the data suggests you're better off sticking to game-level picks.

All of this is verifiable on our stats page. Pull the numbers yourself.